While the European Union is attempting to phase crude oil out of its energy equation in favor of Green Deal–aligned alternatives such as vegetable-based fuels, the United States could consolidate its position as the world’s dominant energy power almost overnight.
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It is important to remember that modern economies were built as carbon economies. They rely on large, stable, and affordable carbon inputs. At present, crude oil remains the most efficient, scalable, and cost-effective source of carbon available.
TOP 20 oil producers
| Rank | Country | Production (Mb/d) | Share of Global Production |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 20.1 | ~20.7% |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 10.9 | ~11.2% |
| 3 | Russia | 10.8 | ~11.1% |
| 4 | Canada | 5.9 | ~6.1% |
| 5 | Iran | 5.1 | ~5.3% |
| 6 | Iraq | 4.4 | ~4.5% |
| 7 | China | 4.3 | ~4.4% |
| 8 | United Arab Emirates | 4.0 | ~4.1% |
| 9 | Brazil | 3.5 | ~3.6% |
| 10 | Kuwait | 2.7 | ~2.8% |
| 11 | Norway | 2.0 | ~2.1% |
| 12 | Mexico | 1.9 | ~2.0% |
| 13 | Kazakhstan | 1.9 | ~2.0% |
| 14 | Qatar | 1.3 | ~1.3% |
| 15 | Nigeria | 1.3 | ~1.3% |
| 16 | Libya | 1.2 | ~1.2% |
| 17 | Algeria | 1.1 | ~1.1% |
| 18 | Oman | 1.0 | ~1.0% |
| 19 | Venezuela | 0.9 | ~0.9% |
| 20 | Angola | 0.9 | ~0.9% |
Pathway to US oil hegemony
Europe actually receives most of its Middle Eastern energy by ship—through LNG carriers and oil tankers—rather than pipelines. The main supplies include LNG from Qatar and oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.
Imagine the following…
The US takes control or Iran maintains a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Iran’s oil infrastructure is destroyed. In response, Iran attacks and destroys major oil refineries and export terminals in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan Pipeline becomes inoperable. This pipeline normally transports oil from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, where it reaches the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and is then shipped to Europe by tanker.
Russia decides to block the oil exports of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). More than 70% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports normally flow through this pipeline, which runs from western Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where the oil is loaded onto tankers bound for Europe.
In this situation, the United States and Russia could potentially gain the leverage needed to impose a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the European Union.
Final Remarks
This wouldn’t be a moral policy …but it would be a lesson in “real” politics.