McKinsey says the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis became the largest recent global energy supply disruption, at its peak affecting around 14% of combined oil and gas supply. Yet the system proved more resilient than expected. Bypass pipelines, emergency inventories and increased production helped replace lost flows, while oil consumption fell by around 6.8 million barrels per day.
However, those buffers are running down. Refining remains under heavy pressure, inventories are limited and alternative pipelines can also be disrupted. McKinsey argues that future energy security will require a combination of new supply, diversified trade routes, strategic inventories, electrification and lower energy consumption. By 2030, measures now being considered could offset 35–70% of pre-crisis Hormuz oil flows.
Positive or Negative
McKinsey’s message is basically: the crisis exposed major weaknesses, but the global energy system handled the shock better than expected. The negative part is that inventories, refining capacity and alternative routes remain vulnerable. The positive part is that diversification, emergency stocks, new infrastructure and lower demand can significantly reduce future risk.
Personal Remarks
The problem with McKinsey is that you never really know whether they are giving you the full picture or steering the analysis toward an agenda linked to their clients’ interests.