Three new reports to be published shortly: “New bio-based building blocks”, “CO2 based polymers” and “Succinic acid and PBS”.
Michael Carus gives a digest of the report on “Production capacities of Bio-based polymers” published in Feb 2017: bio-based polymers production growth has plummeted down to 4% per year like the total polymers market and represent a 13 bn € business or 2% of the total polymer business. The forecast for bio- based polymers has been dramatically reviewed down mainly because of the decision by Coca-Cola to park or, at best, postpone their ambition to replace all their fossil based PET bottles by fully bio-based PET by 2030. A big scoop resulting into a big swing of the growth perspective.
This brutal swing to me is an indication that probability of occurrence of major factors affecting the growth prospects has not be factored in. Well, I, my opinion, it should. And studies as respected as those of the Nova Institute for Bio-materials should offer a three documented scenarios approach ( worst , best and medium case), the medium reflecting the best wise guess of the authors).This is a conditions for investors to be able to rely on those studies.
The study foresees a production capacity for bio-based polymers of 20 million tons by 2020.
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