The EU could hit an energy wall this winter. Heavy import dependence, tighter global supply and geopolitical tensions are leaving Brussels with less room to manoeuvre and less bargaining power. Russian energy has been replaced by a patchwork of alternative suppliers, creating new dependencies rather than genuine energy independence.
Three years ago, the idea that European energy security could increasingly rely on Nigeria might have sounded like a joke. Today, Nigerian crude and refined fuels form part of Europe’s new supply architecture. Any serious disruption there would expose its vulnerabilities.
The United States represents another pressure point. If Trump follows through with restrictions on U.S. diesel exports, Europe could face a severe winter supply shock.
Meanwhile, the European Commission often appears detached from the pressures facing households and industry — playing in the sandbox while the countries controlling the barrels negotiate the real energy deals.
Once upon a time, European nations were among the kings of oil. Today, little remains of that influence. Decades of EU policy appear to have weakened Europe’s industrial growth, energy autonomy and geopolitical leverage.
From this perspective, European policies have failed the very people it was supposed to protect.
“Three years ago, depending on Nigeria would have been called a policy failure. Today we call it diversification. That’s progress at the Berlaymont.”
— Eni Versalis, Head Pimp at the Berlaymont Cafeteria