OPEC’s outlook for global oil demand has deteriorated dramatically during 2026.
At the beginning of the year, OPEC expected global oil demand to grow by around 1.4 million barrels per day. By September, that forecast had collapsed to just 380,000 barrels per day — a decline of roughly 73%.
The trend has accelerated:
- January–April: ~1.4 million b/d
- May: ~1.3 million b/d
- June: ~1.28 million b/d
- July: 780,000 b/d
- August: 580,000 b/d
- September: 380,000 b/d
OPEC has now cut its forecast for five consecutive months.
If that downward trajectory continues, the obvious question is whether OPEC could eventually forecast negative global oil-demand growth before the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided on September 6 to maintain October production at September levels, reflecting continued caution amid geopolitical disruption and weakening demand expectations.