One hypothesis is that Trump’s Iran strategy was never really just about Iran. Disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows, push prices higher, make China’s energy bill more painful, and suddenly American crude becomes more valuable, more competitive and far more strategically important.
The Strait of Hormuz is the pressure point. Squeeze that artery and you squeeze one of China’s most important routes for imported oil. The result is simple: more expensive energy, greater supply risk and a much more vulnerable Beijing.
China’s answer has been to reduce that vulnerability. Domestic oil demand is falling, Beijing has built strategic reserves, increased local production and diversified its suppliers. It is trying to consume less, store more and depend less on a single maritime chokepoint.
And then there is Russia.
For Beijing, Russian oil and gas offer the obvious escape route. More energy can flow overland, bypassing Hormuz altogether, while Moscow gains the enormous customer it increasingly needs. Trump may therefore be hurting China in the Gulf while simultaneously pushing Beijing and Moscow into an even tighter energy embrace.
In other words: weaken the Middle East, squeeze China, strengthen American oil — and accidentally make Russia more important to Beijing.
“Trump weaponised Hormuz, China called Moscow, Russia opened the taps, and Brussels responded decisively by changing the compostable forks in the Berlaymont cafeteria.”
— Eni Versalis, Sheriff of the Berlaymont Cafeteria