TotalEnergies is increasingly exposed to renewable electricity, raising questions about whether the French energy major is allocating too much capital to a sector heavily shaped by European policy.
The company has built more than 37 GW of gross renewable capacity worldwide and continues to expand. In Europe, it reports nearly 10 GW installed or under construction and approximately 27 GW under development. Its latest move — acquiring Shell’s 4 GW European onshore renewables portfolio — increases that exposure further.
The risk is not that renewable projects cannot generate returns. It is that their economics frequently depend on regulation, subsidies, contracts, grid access and political decisions. That creates a different risk profile from TotalEnergies’ traditional oil and gas operations.
Europe’s increasingly prescriptive energy policy also risks turning corporate strategy into policy compliance. When governments strongly favour particular technologies, capital can follow political incentives rather than underlying economics.
Shell is moving in the opposite direction, selling these assets and concentrating capital elsewhere.
TotalEnergies is doubling down.
The question is whether Brussels’ energy dogma will ultimately justify the investment.
Personal Remarks
TotalEnergies is increasingly subject to the Bolshevik-bourgeois energy-policy dogma designed somewhere between a PowerPoint presentation and lunch at the Berlaymont cafeteria.
Europe’s largest integrated oil major is being encouraged to behave less like an oil company and more like an instrument of EU energy policy. The risk is that investment decisions become increasingly influenced by political targets rather than industrial logic and long-term returns.
Shell appears to have reached a different conclusion. It is selling its European onshore renewables portfolio and recycling the capital into businesses where it believes it has stronger competitive advantages.
Perhaps TotalEnergies should order what Shell is having.